This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 23:09 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 108 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 6:59PM EDT until July 4 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA
An estimated 259,037 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 7.4 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 37 · 9.0 km
- July 9, 2026 · score 43 · 11.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 78 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 78% |
| Coordinates | 39.9639, -76.5435 |
| Nearest City | York (16 km) |
| Population Exposed | 259.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Date | 2026-07-04 — time not reported by the source |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Amherst, VA; Appomattox, VA; Buckingham, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fairfax, VA; Fauquier, VA; Loudoun, VA; Prince William, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Carroll, MD; Frederick, MD; Washington, MD and 24 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 6:59PM EDT until July 4 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T19:09:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Blacksburg VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 27 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4d2384bd870d9c2586ba8f5d28d138bb42eea6b1.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.79289cc46fc29e0a354e57d144c919c2dacdc8b9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.387cec28806225e508b302c302aea1ae5bb715fa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d46ab000e827c8b3518eb05b98a7e14ae69ec134.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8fddeb9116067e650553fde6c70ee084f54605de.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b28ac9b9f0a4582370efec53a09bf74ca6e02ed5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.287fec160dfbb6dc1ff0b893ae38e9154c67b5b9.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c97ce057487cd3978dd328049df138475344a24c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0c7e954421f27d0f9d1c623877f99ed8ca3244df.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ac1e2141d184c3c1d1bc9179b55c0ae8866c5045.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f45f276329f77333a63db1cba37bfea8f30cb702.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.691c23b708b67fed027bdfc9b4f7b7824b15f7aa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d2aa155eae04612e1827371281edbe6aaccfdef5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5bb1be395b72ef7b8836502a55d9742874b63f42.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c8affde78f3106d4c1e0f98f608447f61c27c77c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dea2634c5e7a303144de179aa4fa2c4490f40c0c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6e8fc0f754c61c136b22b8173a678be74ca6a1e9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6e10c851f5e554888bc57f4255b96992d1919a38.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1aee4af03e096062062474ec569ee8fc1c8819e7.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bc56a8eb233ccb3f04776b68c79cee592ac04783.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a87ddab614371e8e0cb6291c62ab53cfb2245cba.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ec681db4cdeecc21f249f4c14d14bc514f62674e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3462a58b6a7855c172ef2c1007072a90039d9f41.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.59174c1f5b4af89517566d3da0282e42a23f70a4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.37a8886a86fa01fe55d52fa2a54064d8da42584a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d2de090d9852e3c0d237a3855e5a3a1c28bb8b78.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dc0306bec74bf63dffad1f27ddbcb7edc6055824.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near York (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.